CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001)

This simulation from SWPC contained multiple CMEs, and this predicted arrival time is based on visual inspection of the SWPC ENLIL animation. The CMEs suspected to be contained in this animation run are as follows (listed are the Activity IDs in DONKI): 2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001, 2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001, 2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001, and 2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001. 


Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels with background flux at or near M1.0.
Region 3664 (S19W34, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth
and produced two R3 (Strong) and eight R1 (Minor) events. The largest
events, an X2.2 flare 09/0913 UTC and an X1.1 at 09/1744 UTC, were
accompanied by Type-II and IV radio sweeps, and complex radio burst
signatures were observed across discrete frequencies. A halo CME
associated with the X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC from Region 3664 is
Earth-directed with arrival likely on 11 May. Another halo CME,
associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC, is undergoing modeling as
of the time of this writing.

At present, four halo CMEs (associated with flare activity from Region
3664 over 08-09 May) and a CME associated with a filament eruption (from
08 May) are expected to arrive beginning late on 10 May with the bulk of
geomagnetic impacts predicted on 11 May. The aforementioned CME
associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC will most likely add to
the total count, but remains in analysis as of now.

...

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 10
May with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from 08-09
May). The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on 11
May with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming
expected, and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely. Periods of
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 12 May due to an enhanced
solar wind environment following the passage of the 08-09 May CMEs.

.....
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 10-May 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 10-May 12 2024

             May 10       May 11       May 12
00-03UT       3.33         5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       3.67         7.00 (G3)    5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       3.67         8.33 (G4)    4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       3.00         6.67 (G3)    4.00     
12-15UT       2.67         5.67 (G2)    3.67     
15-18UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    2.67     
18-21UT       4.33         4.67 (G1)    2.67     
21-00UT       5.33 (G1)    4.33         3.67     

Rationale: G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 10-12
May due to multiple CMEs from AR 3634 spanning 08-09 May. G3 (Strong) to
G4 (Severe or greater) geomagnetic storming is likely on 11 May as the
bulk of the activity is expected to arrive during the early hours of the
UTC day.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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